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Cisy 403:Simulation And Modelling Question Paper
Cisy 403:Simulation And Modelling
Course:Computer Science
Institution: Kenya Methodist University question papers
Exam Year:2013
KENYA METHODIST UNIVERSITY
END OF 3''RD ''TRIMESTER 2013 EXAMINATION
FACULTY : COMPUTING & INFORMATICS
DEPARTMENT : COMPUTER SCIENCE AND BUSINESS INFORMATION
UNIT CODE : CISY 403/BBIT 417
UNIT TITLE : SIMULATION AND MODELLING
TIME : 2 HOURS
INSTRUSTIONS: Answer question one and any other two.
Question One
(i) Define the following terms:
Simulation
Model
System
ii) Write short notes on the following
Discrete event simulation.
(3mks)
Continuous system simulation
(3mks)
Mixed continuous/discrete event simulation.
(3mks)
Excel bakery maintains sufficient stock of tis ever delight cake and the daily demand is as under
Daily demand 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Probability 0.02 0.16 0.23 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.06 0.03
Using the following sequence of random numbers simulate the demand for the next 12 days.
(6mks)
If the proprietor of the bakery decides to make 40 cakes everyday, then calculate the stock position at the end of the 12th day.
(3mks)
Calculate the daily average demand for the cakes.
(2mks)
Differentiate the between the following process oriented and parallel simulation.
(4mks)
Question Two
Define the following elements as used in queing system
Customer
Server
(i) What is a queue behavior?
(1mk)
ii) Briefly explain the following as used in queuing theory.
Balking.
(1mk)
Reneging.
(1mk)
Jockeying
(1mk)
(i) What is a queue discipline.
(1mk)
ii) State the meaning of the following queue disciplines, FIFO, LIFO and PR. (3mks)
It has been noted that lorries bound for western Kenya must be weighed at a weigh bridge. There is only one weighing machine at the weigh bridge. The average arrival rate is 15 lorries per hour while the time taken to weigh a lorry is 3 minutes.
Required
The probability that the weigh bridge is busy.
(2mks)
Number of customers waiting in a queue before service.
2mks)
Average waiting time in a queue
(3mks)
Determine the probability that there will be 10 lorries waiting in the queue.
(3mks)
Question Three
(i) State two characteristics of random number.
(2mks)
ii) State four important considerations before choosing a method of random number generation. (4nmks)
(i) Describe a linear congruential model for random number generation.
(4mks)
ii) Use a linear congruential method to generate a sequence of random number with Xo = 27 a= 17, C – 43 and M=100 generate the first. (6mks)
Write short notes on the following methods
Frequency test.
(2mks)
Autocorrelation test.
(2mks)
Question Four
Differentiate between point and interval estimation.
(2mks)
ABC LTD recently acquired a threshing machine with a useful life of 15 years. Over the useful and breakdowns past data for similar machines indicate a probability distribution of failures as follows
Number of failures 0 1 2 3
Probability 0.80 0.15 0.04 0.01
Required
Using the random numbers provided below, simulate the number of failures that will occur over the useful life of the machine.
Random numbers 70,88,37,12,45,99,54,71,64,93,67,80,55,34,22
Determine the average annual failure rate.
(10mks)
Question Five
Differentiate between an open input-output model and closed input-output model.
(2mks)
In order to more effectively coordinate the movement of books between KEMU main library, Nairobi campus and Nakuru campus the following input output transactions data was collected so as to develop an input outut model.
Main campus Nairobi campus Nakuru campus External demand
Main campus 0 40 50 210
Nairobi campus 30 0 50 320
Nakuru campus 30 40 0 430
Others 240 320 0
Total 400 500 400
Find the number of volumes leaving each library when the external demand from main library, Nairobi campus and Nakuru campus are 440,528 and 704 volumes respectively. (15mks)
Lead time demand X for an item is approximated by a normal distribution having mean 25 and variance 9. It is desired to compute the value for lead time that will be exceeded only 5% of the Xo such that P(X7xo) = 0.05(4mks)
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